Media
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At least once a year, its helpful to look at Mary Meeker’s excellent PowerPoint presentation on Technology and Internet Trends. Meeker is a managing director at Morgan Stanley and a leader of the investment bank’s global technology research team. The link above is her slide deck from the Future of Media conference presented last month in New York.
Meeker’s in-depth analysis is viewed from a global perspective, and it provides a great deal of insight into where technology and the Internet are headed. The presentation is filled with salient facts for business executives and marketing professionals, but a few I found particularly illuminating included:
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Here’s more evidence of the continuing shift from analog to digital media. On the heels of this article last month about sharp declines in newspaper circulation in the U.S., comes this story at Crain Communications about the vanishing 18- to 49-year-old age group on network television. NBC was down 11 percent over last year’s figures, CBS declined by 10 percent, and ABC was down by 5 percent.
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There is getting to be more digital HDTV content all the time, and 2008 should usher in a host of additional channels and shows that will be available in the HDTV format. There are a number of reasons 2008 will be a breakout year for HDTV:
1) February 17, 2009 is the deadline date for all television programming to switch to digital. After this date, older, analog television sets will need to run through a special digital-to-analog converter to work. There are still a lot of people unaware of this switchover. According to the Leichman Research Group, only 43 percent of adults know of the analog to digital TV transition that is now only about 14 months away.
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Zenith Optimedia projects worldwide advertising growth at 6.7 percent next year, but the only category on a long-term growth trajectory is the Internet. In fact, they predict that Internet advertising will overtake radio advertising in 2008 and magazine advertising in 2010. On a national level, most other media categories will remain relatively flat over this time period. The exception is newspapers, which are expected to continue losing appreciable advertising market share during the next three years. Television advertising in the U.S. should be helped next year by the Olympics and the presidential election.
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The advertising industry prides itself on fresh thinking. The only consistent rule in advertising seems to be “There are no rules.” However, on the media-buying side of the business, there has been a rule that has driven thinking for almost a half century: Reach (R) x Frequency (F) = Gross Rating Points (GRPs). Reach measures how many people could potentially see your message, and frequency measures how many times those who are reached might see that message. Gross rating points purport to measure the “media tonnage” and effectiveness of a schedule delivered to a specific demographic audience. There is a more thorough discussion of the formula via Google Books.
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