Tuesday, January 10, 2006
Could The Silver Screen Be Losing Its Luster?
byThe pull of the big screen seems to be diminishing according to this AOL Entertainment story. There is nothing quite like seeing a good movie on a big screen with a honkin’ huge sound system that rattles your chair. However, many entertainment venues have their time, and perhaps the Silver Screen has reached its apogee.
The AOL story said movie attendance declined 6 percent in 2005 which is the biggest dip in twenty years. This same story also cites an Associated Press-AOL poll from last summer that reveals 73 percent of adults would prefer watching a movie at home on DVD or pay-per-view. This would certainly point to a substantial reason for the decline.
What’s behind such an overwhelming percentage of people who would rather watch movies at home? Cost certainly has to be one factor. With DVD rentals only a few bucks at your neighborhood rental outlet or via Netflix, the cost differential is substantial. A family of four attending a theater for a new release movie is probably going to shell out around $40 dollars between tickets and concessions.
As the AOL story points out, there is also a big convenience factor. Driving to the movie, finding parking, waiting in line for tickets, waiting in line for popcorn, the uncertainty of a good seat...all this contributes to a certain apprehension that is eliminated when you watch a movie at home.
Another big reason has to be the improving technology. With more and more Americans having large screens in their family rooms accompanied by good sound systems, the in-home experience is getting better all the time.
Cocooning, the tendency for people to use home as a refuge or retreat, might be another reason people would rather watch movies from home.
Future technologies will probably only exacerbate the problem for the theater industry. Upcoming new disc formats such as Blu-ray and HD-DVD will mean consumers can rent movies with stunning detail. The cost of large screen, HD televisions is also declining dramatically.
Another huge factor in the future will probably be IPTV. This is an Internet technology that will allow consumers to download and watch movies directly to their television sets. This could potentially take a big bite out of the theater business and also disenfranchise local DVD rental outlets. This technology is already here. As broadband speeds increase, the roadblocks to movies by IPTV will diminish rapidly. In the future, the people who create movies might find it more lucrative to sell new releases directly to viewers at home rather than through the movie industry. This certainly wouldn’t be the first instance of the Web eliminating the middleman!
Maybe 2005 was just a bad year for the movies. Maybe the Silver Screen industry will rally. The future will tell. I would hate to see the theater industry decline. The larger-than-life movie experience is unique. However, as we can see, there are a number of tidal forces at work that would indicate a rocky road to the future.
